Israeli President Isaac Herzog has asked Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief and the leader of the Yashar party, to try to build the country’s next government, passing over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu even though Netanyahu’s Likud finished first in last month’s election. The formal handover of the mandate was scheduled for Sunday evening in Jerusalem.

Eisenkot gets 28 days to assemble a majority, and the president can add 14 more. Herzog himself sounded cautious, saying in his statement that while the results of his consultations might appear clear, competing demands and vetoes left the outcome in doubt.

How the numbers break down

Israel’s October 27 election gave Likud 27 seats, the most of any party. But no single party comes close to governing alone, and a majority in the 120-seat Knesset requires 61.

  • Netanyahu’s wider bloc won 53 seats.
  • Four parties allied in the effort to unseat him took 48 seats.
  • The Joint List and Ra’am, both Arab-led, control another 19.

When Herzog polled the parties, factions representing 67 members recommended Eisenkot and 46 recommended Netanyahu. The seven members of United Torah Judaism, an ultra-Orthodox party that normally sides with Netanyahu, backed neither.

That 67 looks comfortable, but those recommendations are not commitments to govern together. Take away the 19 Arab-led seats, and Eisenkot is back to 48. Even if all of United Torah Judaism came on board, he would reach only 55, still six short of a majority.

The obstacles

Arab parties. Avigdor Lieberman of Yisrael Beitenu has said he will not join a government dependent on the Joint List and Ra’am. A minority government propped up by outside abstentions has been floated, but Lieberman has rejected that too if it relies on those factions. There is precedent for an Arab party in government: Ra’am joined the short-lived coalition led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid in 2021. That arrangement collapsed after about a year.

Military service. The most difficult issue remains the exemption from army service for ultra-Orthodox seminary students, a grievance that has grown sharply during years of war. Eisenkot has made universal service one of his four principles. Lieberman, long the leading opponent of the exemptions, has surprised some observers by signaling flexibility, on three conditions: Netanyahu must go, there must be no repeat election, and the coalition cannot lean on the Arab parties. United Torah Judaism leader Yaakov Asher said he appreciated the tone but had received no concrete proposal, and that any deal would need approval from the party’s rabbis.

Netanyahu himself. He remains caretaker prime minister and has questioned aspects of the election while authorities look into possible irregularities in the vote. The Central Elections Committee has rejected the idea that the result was tainted. Shas, with six seats, recommended him and is unlikely to move soon.

Who Eisenkot is

Eisenkot led the Israeli military as its top general from 2015 to 2019 and is widely regarded in Israel as a sober, unshowy figure. He entered politics afterward and joined the emergency war cabinet after the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023, a period in which he also lost a son fighting in Gaza. He later left and became an outspoken critic of Netanyahu’s handling of the war.

He is proposing what he calls a “National Emergency Government,” beginning with the four opposition parties and open to others that accept four principles: Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, the values of its Declaration of Independence, universal service, and recognition of Hamas as a terrorist organization. “Israel is facing a genuine, tangible and dangerous national emergency,” he said, accusing the outgoing government of endangering democracy.

What happens next

If Eisenkot succeeds, Netanyahu’s long hold on Israeli politics, the longest of any prime minister in the country’s history, would finally end. If he fails, the president can give another lawmaker a chance, and the country could head back to the polls. Israelis went through five elections between 2019 and 2022, and few of them relish the idea of more.

The conflict with Iran and the unresolved aftermath of the Gaza war make a prolonged vacuum more costly than usual.